Key Takeaways
West Michigan’s workforce numbers mirror the country’s, and they point to a talent shortage that won’t fix itself when the economy shifts. Regions are building the long-term pipeline. Companies that need people now have to become the place workers choose and stay.
- High school graduates have peaked, and more workers are leaving the labor force than entering, in West Michigan and nationally.
- Nearly every job opening this decade replaces someone who left, so keeping people counts as much as finding them.
- The cooler 2026 hiring market is a cycle. The shortage is demographic.
- Regions are fixing the pipeline, but that takes years, and your competitors are hiring this quarter.
- The role of employer branding in talent attraction and retention is to make your culture visible outside the building, so the right people choose you and stay.
A Room That Came to Work
In October, I attended the TalentFirst Fall CEO Council meeting at Trinity Health Lacks Cancer Center in Grand Rapids, Michigan. The room was full of CEOs who came ready to work. I also caught up with a few old friends and met some new ones, which is always the best part of being in a room like this.
One thing came through loud and clear: West Michigan isn’t going to admire the problem. It’s going to solve it.
This is a working group in every sense of the word. Sitting CEOs and business leaders gave the presentation and reported on the organization’s goals. People’s spirits were high, even though the news was sobering.
Simply put: the maths don’t math. There are not enough workers to fill companies’ roles, and the numbers aren’t going to improve anytime soon.
If a whole region can’t recruit its way out of this, what can one company do?
West Michigan Is a Microcosm of the U.S.
I know. They said there wouldn’t be any math.
In 2010, West Michigan had 15 graduates for every 10 job openings that required a credential. By 2025, it had four, according to TalentFirst’s West Michigan Workforce Trends & Insights Report 2026.
That isn’t a local quirk. U.S. high school graduates peaked in 2025 at 3.9 million and are projected to fall 13% by 2041, according to WICHE. Michigan’s drop is steeper at 20%.
The other side of the ledger looks the same. In 2025, about 105,000 people entered West Michigan’s labor force and about 110,000 left it. Nationally, Lightcast projects a shortfall of 6 million workers by 2032. Of the 5 million people who have left the workforce since 2021, 80% were over 55. The Bureau of Labor Statistics expects slower labor force growth and falling participation through 2034.
The reality is, if you’re hiring in Ohio or Texas, you’re looking at the same stats. West Michigan just put it on a screen in front of a room full of CEOs.
The Labor Pool Is Getting Shallower
For many employees, growth comes from climbing the career ladder. Some people are happy with the rung they’re on. Then a welder leaves for two bucks more an hour because there was nowhere to grow.
TalentFirst found that 94% of West Michigan’s openings over the next decade will come from replacing workers who leave. Nationally, BLS projects about 19 million openings a year through 2034, while total employment grows by only 5.2 million over the entire decade. Nearly all of those openings are seats someone just left.
TalentFirst’s report pointed out that entry-level roles turn over two to five times faster than mid-skill positions. In many industries, 20% to 30% of supervisors, managers, and technical leaders are approaching retirement. The Silver Tsunami is cresting.
During the breakout sessions, I overheard a line that I wrote down twice: “The largest tree has the deepest roots.” The owner of a wire manufacturer described how they built “deep roots” levels within a role, with pay attached to each level, for operators who would quit before they moved into an office job. This worked because not everyone wants to ascend the organization chart; some people want to grow deeper where they are.
Every person who leaves your company is another role to fill from a shrinking talent pool. That means your retention and recruitment efforts need to become sharper. The status quo won’t cut it.
Don’t Be Fooled by a Cool Labor Market
Still, if hiring has felt easier this year, you’re not imagining it. In June 2026, the BLS reported 1.0 unemployed person for every job opening. In 2022, the ratio was 0.5, which meant two openings for every person looking.
That shift is cyclical. Graduating classes are still shrinking, retirements are still climbing, and nearly every opening is still a seat someone left.
A cooler market is when competitors trim recruiting budgets and go quiet. It’s also when the companies that keep telling their story pull ahead. The next time you need to hire fast, candidates will already know who they are.
How One Region Is Responding
TalentFirst, a partnership of more than 100 West Michigan business leaders, isn’t waiting for the numbers to improve on their own. Its plan centers on three goals.
- Ensure every child reads. Only 43% of West Michigan students read at grade level, and early literacy is the first link in a chain that ends at a job application.
- Prepare every high school student for career success. That includes a regional career readiness standard built with employers.
- Build an efficient, employer-driven workforce pipeline. Employers help shape what schools and training programs teach, so graduates are ready for the jobs that actually exist.
The work itself is changing too. TalentFirst found that 53% of West Michigan employment sits in jobs with above-average exposure to AI and automation. Communication is now the most in-demand durable skill in the region’s job postings.
Communities across the country are taking on versions of this work. It’s the right work. It also takes years to show up on a payroll.
Growing Roots Early
Many evidence-based initiatives are making headway in connecting communities’ employer needs with the talent pool. One such movement is Ford Next Generation Learning, which works with more than 40 communities across the U.S., including Metro Nashville and Akron. The program has been implemented in a handful of Michigan communities, including Romeo, Center Line, and Battle Creek.
Muskegon Public Schools became the fourth Michigan district to earn the Ford NGL designation. It launched the Innovation Academies of Muskegon (I AM): career-focused learning from PreK through 12th grade, with high school academies in Health & Human Services and in Industry, Technology & Design.
I’ve seen I AM up close as I took part in the Community Connected Framework process. Today, I’m the Co-Chair of the Communication and Community Engagement Tactic Team. The transformation is profound, and it’s just getting started.
Students are getting real-world work experiences. The goal is to arm MPS students with two things: a diploma and a plan for the day after graduation.
Employers are making connections with the next generation of employees before they hit the job market. That’s the employer-branding long game.
A Region Can’t Recruit Its Way Out, but a Company Can
Fixing a region’s labor shortage will take years. Right now, the battle for talent is fierce. You’re competing for the same employees your competitors are hiring this quarter. The HR playbook is being rewritten. Simply posting a position on a job board isn’t enough.
Even with remote work as an option, a region only has a fixed number of candidates. Every company is competing for its share of it. It’s like a Power 4 program that’s hungry for a star recruit. Your reputation and image matter more than ever.
Once you find the right employee, you need to hold onto them. Roughly 40% of all turnover happens in an employee’s first year, and replacing an employee can cost one-half to two times their annual salary. That makes onboarding crucial.
Candidates now ask AI tools what it’s really like to work at your organization, and only about one in three talent leaders is confident those answers are accurate. You can’t advertise your way past a bad first 90 days anymore.
Your mission is to help your managers keep the promise the recruiter made when bringing in that new employee.
Your Employer Brand Is One Piece of the Puzzle
Your culture is probably your biggest asset, and almost nobody outside the building can see it.
More than half of Gen Z and Millennial candidates review a company’s social media before applying, and career sites are now among job seekers’ most trusted resources, up 42% since 2023. That first look is where your culture either shows up or doesn’t.
That’s employer branding’s role in attracting and retaining talent. It takes what your people already know about working for you and puts it in front of the people deciding whether to apply. Done well, it works inside the building too. People stay where they can see a path to grow, and a clear employer brand shows them that path.
Employer branding won’t fix a broken culture, and it won’t cover below-market pay. It’s one piece of the puzzle. It’s also the piece that makes the others visible, starting with a real employer value proposition and leaders candidates can actually find.
This is the work we do at Revel. We help growing companies find the real reasons people join and stay, then put those reasons in front of the candidates their competitors are chasing. See how our employer branding work helps.
The House Is on Fire
An entire region or community can’t recruit its way out of this talent shortage. That means the employers who win will be the ones people choose to join and stay with. That’s what a strong employer brand does. It turns a job into a place people want to grow roots.
That analogy had a second half. Palm trees have almost no roots, and they’re gone in about 12 seconds when the storm hits. Don’t be the palm tree.
The house is on fire. Be the one who brings the water.
If nobody outside your building knows why people stay, that’s a conversation worth having.
FAQ
- What is the role of employer branding in talent attraction and retention?
Employer branding makes your culture visible to people outside your company, so the right candidates choose you. It also reinforces the reasons current employees stay. In a shrinking labor pool where most openings replace someone who left, it supports both sides of hiring. - Why is employer branding important for recruitment?
Candidates research employers before they apply. A clear employer brand gives them a reason to pick you over a competitor offering similar pay, and it attracts people who fit how you actually work. - Is the talent shortage over now that hiring has slowed?
No. The 2026 market is cooler, with about one unemployed person per job opening, according to the BLS. But the shortage is driven by demographics. U.S. high school graduates peaked in 2025, and retirements continue, so hiring pressure is structural.
